Data Suggests the Pandemic Could Be Coming Back With a Vengeance

Florida is preparing to reopen restaurants, bars, gyms, shops, amusement parks and vacation rentals.

At the same time, the state has seen a record resurgence in new COVID-19 cases, with new cases exceeding 1,000 for five days straight.

“In fact, sadly and quietly, the pandemic is roaring back to life,” wrote author Charles Fishman in a series of tweets comparing new COVID-19 statistics from different states.

While some of this rise can be chalked up to an increase in testing, it’s still a troubling trend, suggesting cases could soon start shooting back up again.

According to covid19-projections.com, Florida has an estimated R value of 1.07, meaning each person who has the virus will end up infecting that many people on average. A value of over one means that the state is on an upward trend. Below one would mean that the virus is on a decline.

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The effects of reopening will likely take weeks to make themselves apparent in terms of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

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“We’re going to continue to see increases in cases as people continue to not follow the standard things that we have to follow to avoid transmitting the virus,” Aileen Marty, an infectious disease specialist at Florida International University, told local news on Sunday. “We’re no longer in lockdown. We’ve opened up our community. And it’s been about five days since the protests began.”

Florida isn’t the only state seeing this trend. Other states including California and Texas are also seeing a resurgence in new cases.

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New York City officially entered Phase 1 of its reopening today, with some “nonessential” retailers resuming work. New Yorkers will still have to wear masks if social distancing isn’t possible.


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